REVIEW: Exit Right
Dr Philip Laird, Faculty of Informatics, University of Wollongong
Date: 22 January 2008
Exit Right: the Unraveling of John Howard by Judith Brett
Professor Judith Brett's well written essay (89 pages plus end notes) commences with the view that "the unraveling of John Howard began on the day in early December 2006 when Kevin Rudd was elected as leader of the Opposition."
The author notes that, by March 2007, she was convinced that "Howard's age was his Achilles Heel" and he was headed for "inevitable" defeat; also despite Latham being " unelectable" on election day in 2004, the ALP was able to secure no less than 47.2 per cent the two party preferred vote - thus almost half the electorate were lined up against Howard as he went to the 2007 election. Also noted is that the ALP's loss in 2004 was not unlike the Coalition's loss in 1993.
Central to the essay is the concept of leadership. Howard is identified as 'Strong Leader' with a drive to win. Faced with stern challenges with Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister in-waiting, the author outlines how John Howard and the Liberal Party reacted in 2007 with 'Three traditional lines of attack': attacking the ALP leader, impugning the ALP as poor economic managers, and alleging that the ALP politicians will be controlled by the union movement.
However, the attacks on Rudd did little or no damage, with Texter-Crosby Liberal Party research finding (p21) ''voters like the way Rudd remained "unfazed" by the constant attacks on him."
The essay then moves to how John Howard continued to hang on his high office (at the expense of Peter Costello and the Coalition), and the problem created by Howard's support of US President Bush (including the Iraq war and climate change). Aboriginal politics, federalism (dysfunctional), the AWB scandal, APEC with The Chaser, and Work Choices are also explored along with Maxine McKew winning the Prime Minister's seat of Bennelong.
The essay's concluding section, "The last campaign", mentions - inter alia - delaying the election and opting for a long campaign, the November interest rate rise, and distribution of bogus leaflets in the Western Sydney seat being vacated by Jackie Kelly. Plus a brief assessment of Howard's Legacy leaving (p87) " Australia with a booming economy and most Australians are more prosperous then they have ever been. But he has also left it unready the biggest threat of all: change to our climate and environment caused by human activity." This includes "unsustainable resource use."
By concentrating on how John Howard led his party to defeat, the essay overlooks some of his achievements in his first three terms of office. These include gun control, East Timor, helping to complete the Alice Springs to Darwin railway, and land transport reform with the AusLink program.
Minor omissions in the essay to this reviewer on the Howard Government's last months were little or no reference to the National Party, betting figures (bookmaking odds), the two promised tax cuts after the election was called, and pre poll editorials. These include the Sunday Age, November 18, 'Deserve it or not, Howard faces a losing battle with Me Too', and the Courier Mail, November 23, whilst also acknowledging Howard -Costello contributions, urged a change in government.
Possibly, more could have been said on the efforts of the ALP to win government (including education) as opposed to Howard losing it.
Overall, the essay is highly recommended.
